Fifteen months ago, I believed that come October 2011 we would know the reality or otherwise of Andrea Rossi’s eCat. The 1MW demo was interesting but left gaps you could drive a ship through. Importantly, the meta data was not as solid as we had hoped, prime among the disappointments being the ‘need’ to keep the customer secret. Never mind, we were told, the next customer is happy to sing – be assured; the first 1MW plant is gone, accepted by the secret shopper.
We know the story that followed and so I will not repeat the constant promises and disappointments surrounding imminent news on the Rossi or Defkalion front. The latest pronouncements from AR include plans for a 45MW plant and ‘confirmation’ that the 1MW secret customer is military. As a former serving member of the RAF (21 yrs) I cannot wrap my head around the idea that a device destined to change the nature of warfare is left with the manufacturer for over six months to fix a few gaskets or for any other reason at all. Furthermore, we now hear that Defkalion’s next milestone will be the launch of a prototype Hyperion in July. Is that the next milestone after the announcement of the names of the independent testers and the details of their results?
I believe in proof before guilt and I therefore cannot put my hand on my heart and call anyone a fraud. It seems inconceivable to me that so many qualified and experienced people close to Rossi and DGT could have been hoodwinked by a nuclear-driven boiler if it was a lie. After over a year of intimate exposure to the technology, surely one at least would cry foul when the back story did not match the public one? To me, this is the single factor remaining which offers hope and we should keep that front and centre when tempted to assume fraud. Ironically, as the eCat story stretches credulity, optimism for LENR appears to be strengthened. In turn, LENR’s increasing credibility props AR’s claims – just a little.
The problem here is not certainty of fraud or the death of hope but that the behaviour of the two main organisations is indistinguishable from those with con men at the helm. As I said above and elsewhere, the supporting strut in this affair that remains somewhat intact is the credibility of the company the eCat keeps. For me, however, that is no longer enough.
I constantly worry about steering people towards imprudent investment which is why I normally add a caveat (such as ‘assuming it is true’) to my posts. This was a compromise I could live with until clarity came our way. After all, no-one would be crazy enough to invest without private proof. Would they?
Recent evidence says otherwise. No-one is responsible for placing such a high-risk bet but the person who makes it. To do so without due diligence seems crazy. Even so, I feel increasingly uncomfortable about offering hope even as I hold the belief that it is still there in modest measure.
My recent silence is deliberate. If Rossi or DGT deliver on their promise it will be news worth reporting. In such a case, there will be an avalanche of spin-off stories from around the world and an increasing need to fight disinformation. If it comes to pass, I hope people will see this site as a credible and honest resource. Thus I report my misgivings now even if they are later proven wrong.
I thank everyone for answering my recent call for ideas and should a positive avalanche come our way, I will consider implementing the best of your suggestions. Until then and until the game changes with credible third-party evidence, I will monitor the situation but only post when there is something you need to know. If you wish to attend to the real world in the meantime, it is worth subscribing to the newsletter from the link above. It may appear dormant while we are in wait-mode but if your back is turned and something important breaks (good or bad) you will receive a gentle tap on the shoulder. That may be tomorrow and it may be distant but at least you will be among the first to know when your eye is elsewhere.
While I understand the interest in alternative energy technologies, beyond LENR my attention is casual. LENR may turn out to be extremely important (that is my current bet) but as a science in birth, real news will come in fits and starts. For the best part of a year, I have worked hard – often in a full-time capacity, trying to keep you informed by balancing a sceptical approach with honest optimism. Apart from those who gave them money or direct help, neither Andrea Rossi nor Defkalion GT owe us anything. Secrets and lies are foodstock for business and do not necessarily signal bad intent but I can no longer justify the intense distraction from my real work while such a situation continues. That will change the instant proof of anything substantial comes our way.
In the meantime, if you have put money to this venture without solid evidence (it really is easy to prove) then I would be knocking on doors, very, very hard. I do hope you prove to be a winner along with AR, Defkalion and all those good people they have recruited to their side. Such a win would be a boon to us all.
I look forward to the day we have something more than Rossi or Defkalion-says to report. Until then, chill out and be assured that we are watching on your behalf. I make this announcement as a warning and in the hope that the goodwill of eCatNews readers and posters does not go to waste. I pray the comments do not die as I find them fascinating and a mine of information. If anyone wishes to volunteer as a moderator, we may be able to make good use of what we have built.
I need to launch my next book by the summer. That is where my head will be unless something in the eCat story changes. In which case, all bets are off. Thank you, all.
Paul<< Previous Post -- -- Next post >>