My son asked me where I stood on the Rossi/Defkalion spectrum the other day. It was just after we found out that the 1MW plant was still in Bologna and had never been physically shipped anywhere. I told him then that I had taken a step back but that there was still plenty of room for hope because (among other things) National Instruments was still in the picture. With their direct involvement almost certainly a mirage (in other words Rossi was just a potential customer) that back foot has taken the lead.
On their own, the loss of confidence these two revelations bring to the puzzle is significant but when I examine my thinking with honesty, I recognise a pattern and begin to wonder if that pattern should be extended to other assumptions. It is often difficult to pin down a lie and when you do, it is easily rationalised away as a shrewd deception designed to shake off competitors.
When I started this site, I was far more sceptical than I have been in the last few weeks. Even so, I recently put myself at A3 B2 on the belief spectrum. In other words, I thought LENR was likely real but was a sceptic (a hopeful one) on the eCat. As a born optimist, that is where I am now – although my caution is sharper.
We still do not know the real story but I do give credence to all those people close to Rossi who (to a greater and lesser degree) lend him credibility. The Defkalion spin-off, Rossi’s long-term commitment (financial and time), his association with Focardi, Piantelli’s reported success with NiH and the series of demos (flawed as they were) continue to support the possibility that he has what he claims.
I promised in starting eCatNews that I would call it as I see it – good or bad. There is no way to paint recent events as anything but damaging. If people think it is my reporting that has changed, they are wrong. If good news comes our way, I will report it with enthusiasm. I will, however, be more circumspect with anything of significance if it comes from one of the protagonists without substance. I will not default to assuming a lie as I remain convinced that certainty either way is not possible.
For those who wonder why I have allowed Dick Smith to grace this site with his aggressive calls of fraud when I censure others for the same: He is not anonymous. He is not hiding behind a cloak to protect himself. He is bringing something tangible to the table and not merely parroting the same thing over and over. If any of you anonymous posters wish to reveal your identity and marry your accusations with something useful I will happily let you say your piece without interference.
My intention is to let both sides of the argument air without the discussion falling to shit. There are trouble makers among us and there are genuinely held, differing views written with passion.
For the record, I would prefer Dick Smith to negotiate with DGT without punching them in the face at the same time. I want that test and feel that he is spoiling the chance either deliberately or because he just can’t help himself. I hope I am wrong.
His technical arguments are reasonable. While Defkalion’s tests are a giant leap forward there are a number of unknowns that raise alarm bells for anyone going into the game assuming fraud. He is putting up a lot of money precisely because he thinks they will not deliver. There is no attempt to hide that and so addressing the worries before signing is reasonable.
In provisionally accepting the challenge, the company has signalled their wish to prove the Hyperion. If they have what they claim, there should be no problem in conducting what is evidently a simpler test. If I were to give you a boiler and tell you that it will cut your electricity bill to a fraction of your normal spend, you would not insist on getting two devices, removing the elements and conducting a scientifically sound experiment. You would plug it into the wall and check if the wheel on your electricity meter suddenly slowed in comparison to your current system. I am not saying that DGT’s tests are redundant (they are not) but that Dick Smith’s request for them to show him the goods in a simple fashion is a valuable contribution and a trivial way for Defkalion to win the day if they are genuine.
For Dick Smith (and perhaps Celani) the worry is that without a load, the device may have to be throttled back to prevent overheating and so its utility is not tested even if it proves LENR (this may or may not be so but it is a credible concern). For anyone who believes that cold fusion is real, it is not beyond bounds to wonder if the company can make such a demo without having a reactor ready for the commercial market in the power range they claim. It is like running your kettle dry, blowing air over it so that it doesn’t overheat. Such an experiment may be useful but making a cup of tea would be better still.
In writing the above, I am not accusing anyone of anything but trying to clarify the issues relating to the tests. No matter what happens, I look forward to the seven groups doing their thing and Defkalion proving all the worries misplaced. I also hope the company takes the opportunity to show that it has nothing to hide by taking Dick Smith at his word. Put him on the spot and prove him wrong. If you are genuine, there is nothing to lose.<< Previous Post -- -- Next post >>