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The eCat Credibility Dance

November 29, 2011

As most mainstream media outlets remain cautious about reporting the eCat as either a breakthrough energy device or a scam, you could be forgiven for thinking that those who need to know about it do not. Sure, mass-media attention could bring a stampede of interest, but there are signs that Rossi’s strategy of enigma-before-certainty may be working. We know he has our attention but what about  potential investors, scientists, competitors, politicians?

To many, AR’s refusal to do more tests is evidence that he is trying to hide the fact that the eCat does not work but, if that were true, why perform over a dozen semi-public demos over the last few months and numerous private ones? That does not fit the fear hypothesis. One guess is that he does not want to prove himself too well in case he attracts excessive attention. He needs time to get his patent or enough money and momentum to secure his position for when the inevitable storm breaks.

To counter that, it is reasonable to wonder why he organised any demos at all. For someone trying to avoid too much attention, he sure blogs a lot and plays to the audience at the drop of a hat. On the one hand, he invites a minor AP journalist and announces on his blog (before the 28th ‘customer’ test) that top-level scientists and journalists will be there and on the other he restricts their access and gives nothing of substance that would allow the AP man to convince his editor of anything.

Could the reality be somewhere in the middle? He cannot afford to be invisible. This is business and he needs investors and/or customers. And yet, if he convinces the world and its dog, a thousand labs will swing into action overnight and he hastens the chance of an important discovery trumping his. If that happens, he might get the legs cut from under him quickly. We know there are already competitors breathing down his neck. Imagine how much money will get thrown at them should the fear of missing out on the next big thing infect those with investment funds sitting out the recession. Now imagine it happening while AR is extremely vulnerable. The argument goes that he would be showered with offers and I have to agree to thinking that likely – however, lone inventors who subjugate themselves to powerful men have a history of being burned. We know that AR does not trust easily and if the reality of the Petroldragon affair is even close to his version of events, he has every reason to play canny.

Today’s Boston Globe is a case in point. We’ve heard the story before and the usual stuff is trotted out such as this:

The E-Cat is also haunted by previous “cold fusion’’ claims that have gone unproven. In 1989, researchers Stanley Pons and Martin Fleischmann famously claimed to have produced a small amount of energy by nuclear fusion on a lab bench at room temperature. Although their work generated a Time magazine cover story, other scientists failed to replicate cold fusion, and the field was soon discredited.

Compare that statement to the following from NASA’s Glen Research Centre regarding the Sep 2011 LENR Workshop [my bold]:

Tests conducted at NASA Glenn Research Center in 1989 and elsewhere consistently showed evidence of anomalous heat during gaseous loading and unloading deuterium into bulk palladium. At one time called “cold fusion,” now called “low-energy nuclear reactions” (LENR), such effects are now published in peer-reviewed journals and are gaining attention and mainstream respectability. The instrumentation expertise of NASA GRC is applied to improve the diagnostics for investigating the anomalous heat in LENR.

Even as these results have been repeated and bettered over the last two decades, most scientists still don’t realise it. This state of affairs is aided by journalists who feed on the circular negativity promoted by their ill-informed sources.

The inability of many scientists and politicians to understand that Rossi does not trust the system that fostered the above situation is myopic. Although I understand and share their frustration even as I share Rossi’s admiration of science, I also abhor the yells of ‘scam’ when the inventor refuses to do things their way.

One interesting point comes from the Globe article. It seems that Senator Tarr instigated Rossi’s invite to Boston. That the politician reached out would imply – I think –  that someone is paying attention and able to see through the group-think. Tarr may have insight or better informed advisers than most but, if we get lucky, he will turn out to be the visible vanguard of a hidden change that is long, long overdue.

The big question (if we put aside the even bigger question for a moment) is – Will the shifting ground slide before or after Rossi gains the strength he needs? I think Rossi is far cleverer than many give him credit for and the credibility dance has many subtle moves we’ve yet to see.

External events may yet knock him from his feet. There is a sense of gathering forces beginning to reshape the landscape but, so far, Rossi appears to have kept his course. It is difficult not to admire his footwork.

 

  • Andrea Rossi

    Dear Rick Meisinger:
    I have not time to think to the skeptics. I have to give all my time to the Customers. I am very tired of this skeptics stuff, and of proposal of new tests which are just insults to the serious work made from the high level professionals who worked in the tests already made. Again: somebody wants to make tests? Buy a plant, do all the tests they want. I absolutely have not time, not in this period, I am working 16 hours per day to make all I have to do for the real problem, which is to satisfy the tests that our Customers will make before paying the plants.
    Warm Regards,
    A.R.

Posted by on November 29, 2011. Filed under History,Media & Blogs,Rossi,Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

47 Responses to The eCat Credibility Dance

  1. daniel maris

    November 29, 2011 at 1:22 am

    Well it is an enigma. The best I can come up with is that Rossi, though an engineer, has something like an artistic temperament. I think he follows his moods, his hunches and his instincts and hates been trammeled or constricted by the views and expectations of others. He has that strong inner conviction of the artist who knows what he wishes to create.

    That would I think explain some of his quixotic behaviour.

    I am looking forward to seeing what happens with Defkalion. If they come up with something credible then that will cast a warm glow over Rossi’s work because they have always spoken well of his device as being genuine.

  2. Roger Barker

    November 29, 2011 at 2:32 am

    2 million is not a lot of money for a company. Rossi does have a point. Buy the 1MW reactor and perform all the tests you want.

  3. Dale G. Basgall

    November 29, 2011 at 5:13 am

    Roger 2 million is cheap when you consider the technology, 2 million might get a few experimentors a couple years but for a working model it saves alot of time and money. Some people can spend a couple million on just a boat or small house in an exotic place.

    One thing that has changed for me is that I believe now that there is a legitimate 1st customer that is constantly running tests, and that the 1st customer used a C-130 to transport it as I understand. Correct me if I may have gotten that incorrect.

    • Tony

      November 29, 2011 at 9:23 pm

      Dale,

      Just curious but what has changed your mind about the real customer? There has been no further word on the “customer” except what AR has told you. We still see no factories (and DGT saying they are ready to produce home LENR units in three big factories in Greece) and still not a whisper about the certifications they absolutely would have to have to sell the things anywhere.

      Still smoke and mirrors (and big, diesel generators) from where I stand.

      Tony2

  4. Alain

    November 29, 2011 at 7:34 am

    It is crazy, but clear, that between the 90s and now,
    on one side cold fusion have been decided it is fake science, lost funding, ridiculizing openmind researcher, and working… despipte low cost, and strong only positive potential impact

    on anotherside, climate science, have been decided true, despite big mistakes works that fleishmann’s, despite failure to explain the future, despite crazy exagerations , awful cost on our societies if wrong….

    on both side you see that the problem is taht the media have choosen who is right…
    politiciel follow, scientist adapt and beg for funding…

    we have lost 15 years of research, by like of funding and normal researcher.
    e-cat, or equivalents (if e-cat is a fake, sure another will work), should be working for 10 years in every home and company.

    this is the worst scientific loss since Abel have been killed in a duel. maybe even worse.

    I juste hope that it can sole the climate crazyness by decarbonizing the economy at no cost…*
    but normally, if history repeat, the benefits of e-cat will be privatized in the hand of few (not rossi, he is too small to keep the benefist)…i think that it WILL be done withe the help of ecologists that will ask to forbide it in the crazy name of precaution principle…

    then it will be restricted to a closed club of big corp in big plants…

    like diesther have privatized to oil-companies, the benefist of biodiesel, that could have in theory allowed any farmer to be an oil company with clear vegetable oil…

    • DvH

      November 29, 2011 at 11:41 pm

      which ‘abel’ do you mean? the norwegian mathmatician?

  5. georgehants

    November 29, 2011 at 7:38 am

    Why I wonder do some people, probably those who consider themselves “scientists” keep saying Rossi is not a scientist, they seem to have some crazy idea that a scientist is somebody that went to science school.
    A scientist is only and exclusively a person that searches for natural knowledge.
    Rossi spent 15 years (?) doing experiments on an anomaly that he believed existed, there is no greater scientific endevour that if successful will make him one of the greatest scientists to have lived.
    With the continual incompetence of all but a few brilliant minds Rossi is probable glad not to be included with, in general, such a closed-minded, follow the leader, never say anything against the establishment, bunch of very unpleasant people, willing to attack anybody who speaks against the religious Dogma of the leading Priests.
    If “scientists” stopped blaming everybody who is trying to advance Cold Fusion in general and started to do some bloody science themselves they would not have so much time to spend censoring Wiki-rubbish and journals of everything beyond material reductionism.
    Rossi is giving “science” a chance to look at itself, it’s almost total waste of 60 years, to be known in the future as the “wasted years” where every advance has had to be wrung out of an backward self-serving bunch of club members who think calling themselves “scientists” makes them somehow superior.
    The World is Quantum, but is that taught in schools, no, lets hide it because we cannot explain it, every school child should be given the gift of knowing they are part of a Mysterious, Wonderful existence completely unknown to science, beyond materialism beyond our understanding.
    And science needs to GROW UP.

    • Brad Arnold

      November 29, 2011 at 8:24 am

      “Man fears what he doesn’t understand (which is practically everything).”

      • georgehants

        November 29, 2011 at 8:32 am

        Brad, Yes but “scientists” like to make out they are cleverer and know better than the average man.
        If they honestly admitted they know almost nothing they would be far more respected.

  6. georgehants

    November 29, 2011 at 7:50 am

    Good report if it has not already been seen here.
    http://22passi.blogspot.com/

    • Tom Baccei

      November 29, 2011 at 10:37 am

      The “Rossi as Criminal” model has serious flaws, as do most pathoskep claims!

  7. Brad Arnold

    November 29, 2011 at 8:14 am

    Usually the simplest answer is the best. Rossi was convinced reluctantly to give a public demonstration in January by his adviser Focardi. Rossi has consistently maintained that the time for words is over, and that the marketplace would be the ultimate arbiter. Furthermore, given Rossi prior business experience he is familiar with building a company from the ground up. Finally, commercial LENR is outside of consensus reality, so hard-headed CEOs would be very reluctant to buy into Rossi’s LENR Ni-H technology (you know, the chicken-egg paradox).

    I am maintaining that now Rossi is on the verge of a breakthrough – selling a 1 megawatt E-Cat to a buyer willing to go public – his time would be best spent acting in a PR capacity for his functioning and thriving company. This would help thrust LENR into consensus reality, speeding LENR economic integration, enhance his statue and fame, solidifying his place in history, and improve his business’ public profile, boosting his company’s value far more than acting like a COO.

    Every day that goes by without LENR technology spreading like wildfire means continued poverty and misery for countless souls. I get down on my hands and knees and beg Rossi to please be the front man for LENR. He is Prometheus, and he ought to assume his mantle.

  8. Matthew

    November 29, 2011 at 8:19 am

    Theres one thing that would prove it to me…
    Here is how it would go
    1# Set up the e-cat
    2# Run power through e-cat
    3# Once ready for sustain mode– allow it to go into sustain mode!
    4# Once electric system is ready(steam to electric) unplug the plug from the power outlet.
    5# Plug the power “generated by the steam” into the fans, coolent system and what ever that needs to be working. Now you have a loop. No power in or out, no way!
    6# Get a web cam, turn it on and make a web page on your offical site called e-cat t.v.
    7# Run it for 6 months straight for the world to see!

    All that would be attached is the water hose, but the power supply would loop back into its self.
    THIS WOULD CONVINCE ME and likely make every last scienctist on gods earth crap there selfs. Me, I’d be convinced within a week.

    • Peter Roe

      November 29, 2011 at 10:31 am

      I think you posted this in an earlier thread. Rossi has stated many times that he isn’t interested in convincing doubters, only in selling plant. So unless you have a couple of million dollars in your back pocket and want to buy an eCat, more ‘test suggestions’ are probably not helpful at this point.

    • Tom Baccei

      November 29, 2011 at 10:38 am

      He couldn’t care less whether or not you are convinced.

      • Matthew

        November 29, 2011 at 10:43 am

        It would grow his customer base a thousand fold. His model of selling the e-cat is like selling cars in the 19th century before ford. Not good.

        It wouldn’t take more then a few minutes to hook up a cam pointed in the direction of the e-cat he said has been going for 2 years.

        • Keith

          November 30, 2011 at 3:41 am

          Rossi can’t serve 1000+ customers. So what would the benefit to Rossi be in doing this? Everyone will just say that the webcam is on a tape loop or something. Thus continuing the arguments and generating more calls for public tests. The only thing that will convince the world is a 6-12 month track record of happy customers who are willing to vouch for his devices. We just have to wait and see if they materialize. It’s frustrating, sure, but it’s the play I would make in his place.

      • CM Edwards

        November 29, 2011 at 2:20 pm

        A doubter is just a potential customer who needs some persuading.

        Rossi made a big deal of wondering whether he could book 10000 units. Want to book 10000 x 10000? Bring the doubters around, too.

  9. Anders F

    November 29, 2011 at 10:23 am

    • Casey

      November 29, 2011 at 10:47 am

      “I know what he’s got in the reactor, I know everything. It was a spectroscopy made by the University of Siena. (…) They tried his reactor without him understanding what they did,” he continued.

      Hmmm, the one test Rossi always refused, gamma ray spectroscopy because it would reveal too much.

      • Peter Roe

        November 29, 2011 at 11:06 am

        I think that very soon we will be past the credibility issue entirely. As some of us speculated, it looks as if Defkalion sneaked a gamma spectrograph as well as having all required info on control inputs, and very quickly replicated Rossi’s core. They may have developed it to the point of stable operation (induction heating rather than a resistance heater?) but essentially despite denials it remains Rossi’s invention. Unfortunately for Rossi, he effectively has no protection and therefore probably little recourse against DGT, who in any case are based in another country (any lawyers please opine on this!).

        So, sneaky tricks and industrial espionage – but it seems that there will now be flat out competition until the issue is settled in court. The next hurdle will be certification of a ‘nuclear’ technology for home/business use. I think it is here, and very soon, that we will see the ‘problems’ and the subsequent hijack of the technology by corporate interests as I have gloomily speculated for some time (was that a groan?).

        • georgehants

          November 29, 2011 at 11:11 am

          Peter, Anybody who does not give Rossi full credit will be condemning themselves to be know as parasites trying to be omnivores.

          • Peter Roe

            November 29, 2011 at 11:19 am

            Unbelievably rich parasites, though.

    • Renzo

      November 29, 2011 at 10:48 am

      A bunch of scoundrels, Xauntholis admits they stoled the formula from Rossi. Anyway, as a final consumer, I’d be happy if a home e-cat arrivers sooner

      • Matthew

        November 29, 2011 at 10:59 am

        I feel sorry for Rossi as he will be remembered as the Tesla of cold fusion. The guy will be destroyed by someone that understands how to sell and has real money(the cold fusion Edison ). Rossi doesn’t have a patent…So he can’t stop someone from taking it all and cashing in on it. School children 100 years from now within their fusion powered schools won’t likely be learning about Rossi. Maybe, within the future internet they may run across his name like Telsa’s today, but he won’t be within the general education.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla

        • georgehants

          November 29, 2011 at 11:08 am

          Matthew, There was no internet in them days, we all know the truth (if Rossi has the genuine E-CAT he is the first) and we can do our bit to keep it alive.

          • Josh

            November 29, 2011 at 11:53 am

            I won’t do my part to keep it alive – as Rossi has always said: judge me by my product. He doesn’t have a product (at least not one anyone is willing to admit they bought). If Defkalion proves a product (especially if they are able to bring it to mass market), they win. Rossi will forever be a footnote, and I’m fine with that.

        • Renzo

          November 29, 2011 at 11:19 am

          I agree with georgehants, Rossi doesn’t risk to be forgotten. He will probably become milionaire instead of trillionaire but I don’t think he will suffer the same fate as Meucci, Tesla and similar

        • John E

          November 29, 2011 at 3:26 pm

          The majority of the World thinks the aeroplane, computer, telephone, light bulb, atom bomb and even peanut butter and hamburgers were American inventions. They were not. In a hundred years time – or less – the majority of the world will believe the E-cat is an American invention and Rossi will the Tommy Flowers, Swann, Tesla, etc. if the LENR world. But who really cares. Anybody who takes the trouble will find the truth.

          Why would Rossi spend valuable time trying to satisfy blind sceptics? What would he really gain from that. In his shoes, if I really knew the device worked and was reliable (or at least will one day be reliable) I would most likely also ignore them. He will be too busy selling thousands of units to people who just want to use them to worry about what the others think.

        • Harold Baker

          November 30, 2011 at 5:30 pm

          Yes but his legacy will be a world that no longer relies on fossil fuels, where everybody has access to the basic necessities of food, shelter and energy, not just those fortunate enough to be born in “rich” countries, and where it is no longer necessary to poison the air and water with the byproducts of fossil fuel extraction and production.

    • Anders F

      November 29, 2011 at 11:32 am

      I think the best thing about all this is that it is probably not going to be possible to get a patent on this now. Sure you might be able to patent individual designs, but the general idea will be open, leaving room for a lot of competition. I am working on LENR replication myself and think I have a pretty good idea about the triggers to make it work properly.

      • Peter Roe

        November 29, 2011 at 11:51 am

        Good point. But in any case the ‘BRIC’ countries will by now be onto this and will be free of the kind of resistance indicated by the silence of the controlled media in the ‘west’. Patent protection would only have lasted a while anyway, until someone came up with the next viable CF methodology, so Rossi needs to flog as many 1MW plants as he can – while he can.

        I hope he makes a mint, but in the final analysis it is only the propagation of the technology that matters. Good luck with the replication!

      • Peter Roe

        November 29, 2011 at 12:34 pm

        Replicators: My pennies worth from long term observation:

        Reactor casing: highly austenitic stainless steel, c.3cm thick for shielding, no lead for HT operation.
        Fuel: nanoparticle loose nickel, or same in/on sintered ceramic granulated carrier. Hydrogen.
        Heating: induction by external coil, low frequency high current driver OR HF direct current flow in nickel.
        Catalyst: none, CO2, metal carbonate, or take your pick of Ahern’s list!
        Maintenance: RF induction by external coil, high frequency (MHz/THz) low current driver.
        Control: driver feedback control and/or hydrogen pressure modulation

        • Peter Roe

          November 29, 2011 at 12:43 pm

          “HF direct current flow in nickel” Not stated well. I mean HF chopped or AC current flowing directly through the nickel, between electrodes placed at each end of the reactor chamber, or a centre electrode and the chamber wall. The latter may be the solution to Rossi’s localised heating problem that DGT claimed to have solved.

        • Anders F

          November 29, 2011 at 2:07 pm

          Thank you for trying to help, but there is a lot of desinformation in circulation and I believe your formula is based partly on that information.

          • Peter Roe

            November 29, 2011 at 2:23 pm

            Yes, probably true, although I’ve tried to steer clear of some probable red herrings (hence ‘none’ as the first option catalyser – I actually think that a combination of electrical ionisation and magnetostriction in the nickel is the most likely ‘catalyst’). The above is derived partly from my own early guesswork based on apparent anomalies such as the external ‘band heater’ on the prototypes (disguised induction coil?) some of which seems to have been supported in one way or another by certain evidence, and may also now be supported by Ahern’s work.

            Just a bit of fun speculation though – if you have better info I wish you every success in your efforts.

          • Anders F

            November 29, 2011 at 4:33 pm

            I have a theory, I am currently trying to verify that theory. If I am able to verify it I will probably release it to the public right away. Was thinking of trying to get a patent, but for the good of all I think it is better if this tech gets into public domain as soon as possible. Even if this tech becomes public it will be very easy to make money with it the coming 20 or so years….

  10. Josh

    November 29, 2011 at 12:01 pm

    Paraphrasing Rossi:

    I don’t have time for skeptics. I’m too busy trying to prove my product to skeptics (people unwilling to buy his product without proof it works). [“satisfy the tests that our Customers will make before paying the plants”]

    Are those not the words of a crazy man? Prove it once and he will have more customers than he could ever satisfy.

    • georgehants

      November 29, 2011 at 12:16 pm

      Josh your comments are illogical, who would buy a plant without knowing it works, if you wish to be skeptical your only rational argument is that there is no plant, and until that is known for sure your personal opinion is valueless if not stated as such.

      • Josh

        November 29, 2011 at 2:09 pm

        You make my point: who would buy a plant without knowing it works? So if you have limited time and resources (as Rossi as stated), why on Earth would you not prove it once – for all customers and potential customers to see – instead of wasting time and tying up money in escrow while you prove each plant individually?

        • georgehants

          November 29, 2011 at 3:39 pm

          Again your logic is nonexistent, you agree with me and then find another excuse to disagree with the point you have just made.

      • DvH

        November 29, 2011 at 11:47 pm

        there is quite a difference between ‘knowing it works’ and ‘believing it works’.
        there a very few people who KNOW if it works or not – the rest just believe or hope, that it does.

        • DvH

          November 29, 2011 at 11:52 pm

          with ‘it’ i mean AR’s blue container

  11. Allan Kiik

    November 29, 2011 at 2:25 pm

    Looks like even Krivit is “melting” now, see this unexpected conversation with Thomas Blakeslee at NET:
    http://newenergytimes.com/v2/sr/RossiECat/A-Conversation-With-Thomas-Blakeslee.shtml

    • Peter Roe

      November 29, 2011 at 4:38 pm

      Krivit is trying to cover his backside by showing how open he is to the possibility that Rossi may have something – suddenly. Funny how the conversation was never published before.

  12. Harold Baker

    November 30, 2011 at 5:11 pm

    After all the hard work Rossi has done and his unwavering commitment over 20 years, it would be terrible to see his work stolen by a former partner. I am rooting for Rossi to prevail in any legal battles which will inevitably ensue