After a period of relative silence from both major players in the game, Defkalion also made an appearance in the shape of a ‘progress’ pdf.

As interesting as both contributions are, for me, there is not enough substance to substantially alter my stance. Hope remains but I urge potential investors to caution unless they are given definitive (albeit private) proof. I look forward to such proof coming our way but until it does, my position stands.

For those who have followed eCatNews for some time, my increased caution is evident. This shift is made with a heavy heart and a recognition that not everything points to the supremacy of the sceptics. While the lack of definitive proof and the obfuscation by both Defkalion GT and Andrea Rossi mirror the likes of Steorn, that alone does not point to proof of foul play.

It is instructive to look at the case of Starlite. Created by English inventor Maurice Ward around the time of the Pons and Fleischmann announcement, Starlite is a plastic that can be painted onto any surface to insulate it from extreme heat. Able to withstand thousands of degrees Celsius, it has never made it to market. No one doubts its reality. It is far easier to demonstrate the effect while protecting the ip than the eCat. It is reasonable to point out that, unlike Starlite,  the eCat has not undergone independent testing but that does not detract from the point I am trying to make here. Much is made of Andrea Rossi’s behavior but such attacks are unsophisticated in the light of further investigation. The most anyone can accuse the eCat of is being unproven. That is why we should be cautious and wait but not accuse. Ward’s paranoia was not unfounded but, taken to excess, the effect can be crippling. Sometimes a genius can act in ways that do not make sense to those of us on the wrong side of the curtain.

We may yet learn that Andrea Rossi is such a genius navigating his way through an impossible maze of conflicting priorities. Right now, the pattern fits both Starlite and Steorn and the latter is not flattering. I remain a LENR optimist and for that reason hold out that we may have another Starlite here. While that invention was astounding, its potential for change is dwarfed by the eCat. This is why you should remain suspicious of anyone telling you that the chance of Rossi being real is zero.

Keep an open mind – unless someone is asking you to open your wallet. It was in learning that one person at least appears to have invested serious money in this venture without due diligence that I took a step back.

Hope is not enough to jump with two feet but it is still there.

It would be easy to simply post whatever anyone says about the subject. Ironically it takes time to post less. If eCatNews is to be useful, it requires full attention. I will only make that commitment while I am confident that I can bring value to its readers and that I am not steering them down false paths. The stakes are too high.

While I do not accuse Andrea Rossi or Defkalion of fraud, I cannot tell the difference between their actions and the eternal shifting promise of certain dodgy schemes of the past. If I had the resources, I would use them to find out the truth but I do not. There are so many people close to AR and Defkalion that it is inconceivable for all to be unaware of that truth. If there is no million-unit factory, someone close knows this and is scratching their head. That they would all then bury it in the sand is hard to believe. Can we therefore deduce that it must be true? Unfortunately, no. While I think too many hardened sceptics act on belief in place of logic, I agree with their take on the powerful tendency for people to delude themselves. That is not an insult; I include myself.

If Rossi and/or Defkalion are on the level, we will soon know (there’s that word again… “Soon” [You said it was just around the corner, Daddy!]) but my scepticism will remain strong until they deliver on their promises.

The case for LENR, in my opinion, is entirely different and I appreciate the scientific arguments here from both sides of the fence. The case against seems to be this:

We are not sure, so we will not investigate.

Given the potential prize, this is the greatest delusion of all.

eCatNews is unique in trying to bring all sides of the discussion together – where genuine, honest and healthy scepticism is encouraged along with its optimistic sibling.

Our energy needs are small and the solution is out there for the taking. Neither the eCat nor LENR is too good to be true (if the eCat falls, this statement still stands). Someday, we will reach a metaphorical finger to the sky and tap a fraction of the energy available as the planet screams across the universe. On that day, cold fusion’s stitch-up will be history and the technology of the day will seem a fantasy now. It may or may not include LENR in the mix.

The journey and the fight in getting there will pass through many fronts. This is one of them. The men and women at the coal face need help. It is tough enough dealing with the inevitable dead ends at the head of any pioneering research but they do so on an uneven playing field.

Right now, the best service eCatNews can offer its readers is to act as a focus for cautious hope with regard to any single group and a forum for realistic exploration of the field as a whole. I want to encourage a real effort by those who hold the levers in business and politics to do something meaningful. If a fraction of the enviromental costs of fossil and current nuclear fuels is put into the hunt for the future miracle we know is waiting for us, that future will speed our way. Bring to the table the cost of war and diplomacy, bribes and corruption, theft and political lobbying and the true waste is astonishing. One of our greatest triumphs is the scientific method and one of our greatest failures is the lack of support for a scientific push into the one thing that would change everything. If it takes trillions, we should spend trillions. It is that important.

While the eCat or Hyperion offers even a small hope of leveraging that effort, I am happy to wait. If Defkalion proves nothing by the end of summer, I will lose interest in anything they say.

I intend to use this lull to catch up on my work. The instant credible evidence comes our way, eCatNews will commit to helping whoever gives it.

We know the story that followed and so I will not repeat the constant promises and disappointments surrounding imminent news on the Rossi or Defkalion front. The latest pronouncements from AR include plans for a 45MW plant and ‘confirmation’  that the 1MW secret customer is military. As a former serving member of the RAF (21 yrs) I cannot wrap my head around the idea that a device destined to change the nature of warfare is left with the manufacturer for over six months to fix a few gaskets or for any other reason at all. Furthermore, we now hear that Defkalion’s next milestone will be the launch of a prototype Hyperion in July. Is that the next milestone after the announcement of the names of the independent testers and the details of their results?

I believe in proof before guilt and I therefore cannot put my hand on my heart and call anyone a fraud. It seems inconceivable to me that so many qualified and experienced people close to Rossi and DGT could have been hoodwinked by a nuclear-driven boiler if it was a lie. After over a year of intimate exposure to the technology, surely one at least would cry foul when the back story did not match the public one? To me, this is the single factor remaining which offers hope and we should keep that front and centre when tempted to assume fraud. Ironically, as the eCat story stretches credulity, optimism for LENR appears to be strengthened. In turn, LENR’s increasing credibility props AR’s claims – just a little.

The problem here is not certainty of fraud or the death of hope but that the behaviour of the two main organisations is indistinguishable from those with con men at the helm. As I said above and elsewhere, the supporting strut in this affair that remains somewhat intact is the credibility of the company the eCat keeps. For me, however, that is no longer enough.

I constantly worry about steering people towards imprudent investment which is why I normally add a caveat (such as ‘assuming it is true’) to my posts. This was a compromise I could live with until clarity came our way. After all, no-one would be crazy enough to invest without private proof. Would they?

Recent evidence says otherwise. No-one is responsible for placing such a high-risk bet but the person who makes it. To do so without due diligence seems crazy. Even so, I feel increasingly uncomfortable about offering hope even as I hold the belief that it is still there in modest measure.

My recent silence is deliberate. If Rossi or DGT deliver on their promise it will be news worth reporting. In such a case, there will be an avalanche of spin-off stories from around the world and an increasing need to fight disinformation. If it comes to pass, I hope people will see this site as a credible and honest resource. Thus I report my misgivings now even if they are later proven wrong.

I thank everyone for answering my recent call for ideas and should a positive avalanche come our way, I will consider implementing the best of your suggestions. Until then and until the game changes with credible third-party evidence, I will monitor the situation but only post when there is something you need to know. If you wish to attend to the real world in the meantime, it is worth subscribing to the newsletter from the link above. It may appear dormant while we are in wait-mode but if your back is turned and something important breaks (good or bad) you will receive a gentle tap on the shoulder. That may be tomorrow and it may be distant but at least you will be among the first to know when your eye is elsewhere.

While I understand the interest in alternative energy technologies, beyond LENR my attention is casual. LENR may turn out to be extremely important (that is my current bet) but as a science in birth, real news will come in fits and starts. For the best part of a year, I have worked hard – often in a full-time capacity, trying to keep you informed by balancing a sceptical approach with honest optimism. Apart from those who gave them money or direct help, neither Andrea Rossi nor Defkalion GT owe us anything. Secrets and lies are foodstock for business and do not necessarily signal bad intent but I can no longer justify the intense distraction from my real work while such a situation continues. That will change the instant proof of anything substantial comes our way.

In the meantime, if you have put money to this venture without solid evidence (it really is easy to prove) then I would be knocking on doors, very, very hard. I do hope you prove to be a winner along with AR, Defkalion and all those good people they have recruited to their side. Such a win would be a boon to us all.

I look forward to the day we have something more than Rossi or Defkalion-says to report. Until then, chill out and be assured that we are watching on your behalf. I make this announcement as a warning and in the hope that the goodwill of eCatNews readers and posters does not go to waste. I pray the comments do not die as I find them fascinating and a mine of information. If anyone wishes to volunteer as a moderator, we may be able to make good use of what we have built.

I need to launch my next book by the summer. That is where my head will be unless something in the eCat story changes. In which case, all bets are off. Thank you, all.

Paul

The following comes from James Stafford (thank you, James). The full interview is here.

Some of the questions we asked Mr. Rossi take a look at:

• Why it took so long for him to go public with his discovery. • How the E-Cat will produce energy costing $10/megawatt hour. • When he will release more detailed information on the E-Cat. • Why he believes international media coverage of the E-Cat has been so muted. • His feelings towards critics and the scientific community. • His manufacturing and distribution goals. • How the E-cat will help reduce mankind’s dependency on fossil fuels. • + Many more details on the e-cat, LENR and Rossi himself.

The pdf in question

[With thanks to Shane D and Spacegoat]